PJ2
"Shrapnel" damage is visible on many of the large sections, which would be expected
I go for hours without reading this thread but from the posts so far it appears that the posters are referencing photos etc. that are now deleted.
I agree that much can be discerned by examining the photos against experience although the best we might do is decide how much it broke up in the air.
Your use of the word shrapnel is intriguing. I tend to use that word only in describing impacts to a structure from smaller individual objects moving at a much higher velocity and from a funnel source(explosive blasts, uncontained engine bits etc.) In the event of a breakup either in the air or against the water the velocity gradient between major parts is not as pronounced and scaring and longitudinal (along the axis of flight) gouging is more evident.
If you could point to a photo of what you meant I could understand better.