Given that speculation is part of what this forum and this thread are about, the most accurate speculation (though that term in itself can be problematic) that can be done in most situations like this, is to speculate on what things, with given facts, most likely are NOT true. Informed speculation (as has been previously mentioned) often provides an investigator with assistance in where to look and what to look for.
I may have missed somehting (as I often do . . ) this morning, but I haven't seen anyone say that the new pix lead us directly to inflight break up. Using the process I mentioned above, the size and condition of the portions recovered in the recent pix do lead us away from the notion of a high speed / high angle impact with the surface.
Investigators will indeed be ticking off a few boxes as we write these things. But in almost all instances they will be ticking the box that says "Not Likely" rather than the box that says "Likely". And, over the next few weeks and months, they will continue to do so -- very slowly, and very carefully.