PiB #861
"Regarding RyanAir, at least the are parking aircraft in anticipation of a downturn. This move by them shows that they will go out of business as well if there are no passengers."
I assume you meant "upturn" not "downturn" in your post?
In respect of Ryanair going out of business as well, I actually think you misunderstand the dynamics here. Ryanair has more cash/near-cash than any other airline in Europe. They can withstand a downturn longer than anyone, they can cut fares more and for longer than anyone. The latter has been their strategy in recent years. They learned it in their formative years from Aer Lingus actually, who did pretty much the same to them when they were small and Aer Lingus had a near-100% share of the lucrative London-Dublin route.
Anyway, the point is this. Ryanair will mothball their fleet to preserve cash just like anyone else. However, at some point weaker airlines will go broke, as has already happened to a couple of the charters and all those "business class only" shops that collapsed last year. As the weakest die, so the stronger players (of which Ryanair is now the proverbial 800# gorilla) pick up the routes/passengers. The total market may be smaller, but they have a bigger share.
The problem BA has is that it will go under well before Ryanair. Ryanair will be the last one standing. For it to fail, or even shrink in size, ALL air travel will have to cease, and we're nowhere near that happening. The weakest link in this is probably Aer Lingus, which started with less cash than most and is burning it fastest. Net-net that's good for Ryanair, even though it would hit the value of their shareholding in Aer Lingus.
BA is not in a strong cash position either. I'm not of the "BA will disappear" brigade. Its routes and LHR slots are worth a fortune long-term. However, BA could be so badly weakened that it has to seek further defensive mergers on unattractive terms (are you going to be rebranded as Iberia soon?), or is actually the subject of a hostile bid from an aggressive new airline keen to increase its route network (ring any bells?). Both those options are likely to be worse for BA staff than anything proposed by a currently independent BA right now.