PPRuNe Forums - View Single Post - AF447
Thread: AF447
View Single Post
Old 13th Jun 2009, 12:08
  #1353 (permalink)  
RuudA
 
Join Date: Jun 2009
Location: Netherlands
Posts: 2
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes on 0 Posts
debris and impact-location

The Brazilian Air Force released information on 9 June showing that bodies from flight af447 had been recovered from locations that were more than 50 miles apart.

This two finding locations can be explained by a broke up in flight (see the New York Times 11 June) but can also be explained by the influence of the surface current: the Northern South Equatorial Current (NSEC).

This NSEC current is a westward flowing current that extends from the surface to a nominal depth of 100 m. The westward flowing NSEC is situated between 1°N and the SEUC at 3°S-5°S.... Its velocity rarely exceeds 30 cm s-1. This velocity is also confirmed by the Brazilian Navy on 11 June: "the maritime current has changed from North to a Westerly direction, with a speed of around 1,1 kilometers per hour".
This western current is also influenced by the wind. The wind was on 1 June also from the east ( see the detailed meteorological analysis of Tim Vasquez)
So we can assume that the surface-current was about 25 km per day from east to west

The AF447 tailfin was found at 8 June. So this fin traveled 8 days with the NSEC current about 200 km (= 8 x 25 km).
If you want to find the impact-location of the tailfin then start on the finding location of the fin and follow the NSEC.
So it is reasonable to assume that the impact-location will be about 200km ( = 2 degrees) more to the east then the finding location.

This drift of 200km from the impact-location to the finding-location can also explain why on two locations bodies were found.
On the impact-location the surface-currents are diverging. The south-part is going west-northwest and the north-part drifts more to the north.




You can see this surface-currents at: The North Brazil Current

So if the plane made debris on two different moments, then small differences in time (or place) at the impact location can give after 8 days bigger differences at the finding locations.

The next scenario gives an explanation of the two separated debris locations:
Assume that the impact started with a tail-break and the first loss of bodies and debris from the tail-section (this explains the finding of the crew container, the laval door and jumpseats).
Then some moments later during the sinking of the plane a second wave of bodies and debris was going to the surface. From this second location there can be a debris-trail from the impact-location to the second finding-location.

The consequence of an impact location 200km eastwards of the finding locations (or Tasil) is that the plane was 200km in the air after the last ACARS messages.

Last edited by RuudA; 17th Jun 2009 at 18:25.
RuudA is offline