AF447

[The Chaser]

1. The ACARS messaging (if complete and accurate) up until 02h14 provides only a preamble of circumstances, circumstances that we are all aware could/would place the flight deck crew in an unenviable position for a whole host of reasons.
2. What we do not know with any certainty are the accompanying actual conditions such as Turbulence intensity, airmass movement and possible high level sheer (vertical and or lateral), Airframe Ice, Hail etc both before, and more particularly after 02h14.
3. We have some very good work by Meteorologist experts that ‘might’ indicate what they were faced with, nothing definite though, so apart from the ‘turbulence report’ there is nothing definitive beyond that.
4. We cannot draw any firm conclusions yet regarding the latent/possible connections between 1. 2. and 3. above


It is after 02h14 that the main destructive events occur of which we know very little


1. The Vertical Stab and Rudder became separated from the rest of the aircraft at some point after 02h14 (otherwise prior to 02h14 ACARS would likely have shot off other pertinent WARN and FAIL messages related to that structure, its integral systems and its operation)
2. Those recovered appear (if condition reports are accurate) to have left the aircraft structure sometime after 02h14, and most likely well before the fuselage section/sections met the surface
3. The small amount of debris (and its condition) recovered is suggestive of ejection (likely at high altitude and high speed) without high speed destructive impact with a solid surface such as other aircraft structures and/or the surface/water (NB: disputed, see below)


To glean anything further at this point is going to be difficult unless information such as:-


1. The seating positions of those recovered is known and published
2. The aircraft parts recovered are identified and their positions in the airframe confirmed and published


Even with that information, the dots are only very loosely drawn. It is my opinion that it is critical that retrieval (at any cost) of the FDR, CVR and the QAR (if it is not totally destroyed), as well as the aircraft structures is paramount. There may well be latent failure modes here that could develop without the preamble events as we suspect them to be, the only way those question marks can be eliminated or addressed is to know the actual events and behaviours. There is only one way to obtain the necessary information.