Originally Posted by "towhee'
Is it an established fact or only an assumption that the AF
pilots were 'flying through that weather'?
Established fact? Not yet.
However, I think it is probable because the projections of the plane flying through the MCS explain the 0200Z manual message and fit in well with the projections of Tim Vasquez. Maps suggesting deviation do not do this as well, so I would suggest that the general weight of the evidence suggests that the plane was probably flying through the mesoscale convective system.
This makes it more than an assumption and a bit less than an established fact.