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Old 11th Jun 2009, 15:54
  #4738 (permalink)  
walter kennedy
 
Join Date: Sep 2003
Location: Perth, Western Australia
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WEATHER
There was one witness who arrived shortly after the crash; living in Campbeltown he didn't have far to come. He was the Procurator Fiscal himself who ended up calling the FAI and who was still a serving Judge when he described to me the conditions around the crash site - below the thick cloud at the crash site, extending to about the level of the lighthouse, the fog was layered "like a cake" following the slope; it was of limited height and "several times bright sunshine broke through".
Wonder why he was not asked to give a statement on the weather - it is after all typical of what you would expect in the late afternoon/evening with a southerly hitting the headland at that time of year.
I repeat that from the various descriptions, the weather that affected them as they approached the Mull was most probably solid orographic cloud at about 800' (which obscured the bigger topographical features that normally help with orientation) with ground hugging mist following the slope from about the lighthouse level up to the point where it merged with the solid cloud (which while typically not totally consistently masking the whole slope, would fuzz ground detail making distance judgement difficult on a slope which in clear vis is not conducive to easy dist judgement).
I have tried many times to explain the conditions to you all, even posting pix, but still you waffle on. IT IS THE RIGHT TIME OF YEAR, WHY DON'T YOU ALL GO UP THERE FOR A FEW DAYS DURING FORECAST AVERAGE (for time of year) DAY TEMPERATURES AND SOUTHERLY WIND - should be more often than not - as the day cools (late afternoon/evening) you will get the oro cloud forming and then the streaks of mist will start running up the slope, thickening with strengthening wind (it is the lower layer of air next to the ground that gets compressed, speeds up, cools more than with just orographic lift, and reaches its dew point well below the bulk of the air mass). If you don't want to hire a plane, a boat will do - 4 hrs charter from 4-8 pm. Look at the Mull from the position of waypoint change (bring your own GPS) - that is if conditions allowed the skipper to bring a boat that close in.
While you are there, try to visualise the approach track they were on up to the position of waypoint change - check out the feasibility of seeing the lighthouse clearly and consistently enough on that track - it should have been almost directly ahead/slightly to their left up to that point and you may have expected them to have had enough sight of it to carrect their course to the left if just flying by was their intention - but I doubt if it would have been good enough to judge when to turn right to the LZ and therefore would not have been a good enough vis ref to contradict any navaid ref that may have been in error.
BOAC I will be responding to your large post shortly - sorry about delay.

Last edited by walter kennedy; 11th Jun 2009 at 16:14. Reason: addition spelling
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