ttcse;
Don't forget the vertical possibility, say from impact while in a spin or stall.
With respect, transport category aircraft do not "spin". Cubs, 172s and light twins "spin". The NTSB animation of the Colgan accident is as close to "spin" as an airliner might get - more like a spiral dive quickly achieving very high speed with high nose-down pitch attitudes and requiring significant altitude to recover, if at all.
While transport aircraft stall as has been amply demonstrated of late, the results are almost always catastrophic, the exception being the slow-speed Amsterdam accident, ergo, an intact vertical stabilizer with essentially-unscathed internal mounting structures, would not obtain in such a vertical accident.
Any high-speed impact with water is the same as hitting a rock face thus the exhibited wreckage distribution pattern and disintegration would be like SW111 if anyone is familiar with that investigation, (I am, but only very much on the periphery). With the greatest of respect for the victims and families and apologies for a terribly indelicate observation, the condition of the remains found thus far almost certainly indicates an in-flight breakup at some point during the accident sequence.