Originally Posted by
capeverde2008
I feel that this thread may need a re-focus. Many of the comments seem to be bogged-down with minutiae....
Why would an experienced crew venture (with presumably expertise and w/x radar into a 'no-go' w/x storm CB soup such as this?).
I was trained to avoid this sort of weather by many miles. Experience taught me via various incidents that 20nm (min. trained) avoidance from CB tropical should actually be 100nm avoidance.....Full Stop! AAAC (Avoid at all costs).
If fuel is a worry; divert/turn back.
The weather indicated and discussed fully in all manner of prior posts was not; repeat NOT an area where any passenger aircraft should even have attempted to go anywhere near. Full Stop!
There is no proof that they went anywhere near a CB. Only speculation based on their planned route. They could have deviated a hundred miles around the nasty weather then crashed as they were returning to course.
Other crews transited that same area and there is no reason to expect that AF447 would have any trouble on the same route.
Be patient and deal with the known facts.