It is time to dig out the old, cracked vinyl record and say "PLEASE WAIT FOR FACTS"
ASSUMING 'pan gloss's' first post (this am) stays here I recommend everyone reads the first, second and last paragraphs. My feelings entirely. Just in case it is whisked away I copy here those paragraphs. (EDIT: Too late - it has gone
)
Keep the good analytical work (and leave the speculation behind)
So far, I have kept quiet on this subject, as I think that many of you provided a great and thorough analysis on the few available facts (e.g. the ACARS messages). I truly dislike all the true speculation, because it clutters up this thread without adding any value.
It would probably be useful to create a new topic which summarizes the thorough analysis performed early in this second thread, as even the Wikipedia summary keeps getting messed up. And this one here is already a true pain to read.
........
One question I have not found anything related to - despite following both threads closely: Do the AF447 messages truly end on top of page 39 of the ACARS summary or were there possibly further messages which were not broadcasted by TF2? Statistically there is quite a small likelihood (e.g. 7.14%) that the last message coincides exactly with a page break (in this case the top of page 29 of 256, as the header indicates).
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Guys and girls, the dogs are again out chasing the hares. We have a grainy picture of a floating fin assembly. Speculation is rife as to what happened to it. We can only be hours away now from major new hard information - the metallurgical nature of the fin failure and an idea of both the cause of death of the recovered bodies and their allocated seats.
For some inexplicable reason, the
BEST post since fin discovery is
now in JB. Again I reproduce the bulk of arcniz's (current post #263) from JB
evidence of skin-bending, surface contamination and dimpling changes, combined with structural deformations of the vertical tail, will likely give fair evidence to the mode and timing of separation from the airframe proper - whether 'twas in the air or on contact with the water, and whether fast or slow and whether stress-loaded in the forward direction of flight or totherwise.
Futhermore, if those fancy ocean-current models are as smart as some says they be, the position where it was found may point to the position where tail and fuselage were last in close proximity.
Most of us involved in aviation turn to
THIS thread for facts, not speculation.