I think the rudder conversation is mostly just conversation; I doubt you can deduce much from speculating about the photos. The power of moving air is much greater than people realize—I've seen avalanches in the Canadian Rockies snap whole pine forests downslope like toothpicks: but in truth it was not the snow breaking those trees; it was the compressed air preceding the snow. The air by itself was snapping hundreds of tree-trunks in just a few seconds.
I think, whatever AF447 wreckage is found, the wreckage itself is likely a final result, and if you had half a dozen hypothetical scenarios which had similar causes, the way the plane fell—through such turbulence and from such a height—and what stayed together would vary considerably. Like any two leaves falling from a maple tree, I would suggest.