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Old 8th Jun 2009, 11:01
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Join Date: Aug 1998
Location: Ex-pat Aussie in the UK
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Tim Vasquez has posted a fantastic weather analysis for the AF744 flight ... At the same time some pilots have posted observations of temps within cells climbing with 30 degrees within seconds ...

"I do not agree that a bubble of warmer air (that is, any warmer than about 5 degrees compared to the environmental air) would have made it up to flight level. This requires exceptionally high equivalent potential temperatures at some..."
While I don't doubt Mr. Vasquez's credentials, and I know he is being quoted third hand here, perhaps people should read the report on the four engine rollback of VH-JJP which was investigated in 1992 in Australia:

The aircraft was on a scheduled domestic passenger service flight from Karratha to Perth at Flight Level 310 (31,000 ft). As the aircraft entered cloud while diverting around a large thunderstorm, there was a sudden and significant rise in the outside air temperature. A short time later, all four engines progressively lost power and the aircraft was unable to maintain altitude. During the next 17 minutes, numerous attempts to restore engine power were made without success until, approaching 10,000 ft altitude, normal engine operation was regained.
Appendix 1 of the report contains the Meteorological research of the warm air outflow from the top of the thunderstorm which caused the event.
The report is here:
http://www.atsb.gov.au/publications/...200286_001.pdf
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