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Old 5th Jun 2009, 23:02
  #226 (permalink)  
Mad (Flt) Scientist
 
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Originally Posted by PJ2
aquadalte;
Notwithstanding greenspinner's excellent work, the list of ACARS messages you've quoted from the AvHerald differs in the details from the ones posted and examined here:

02:10Z:
Autothrust off
Autopilot off
FBW alternate law
Rudder Travel Limiter Fault
TCAS fault due to antenna fault
Flight Envelope Computation warning
All pitot static ports lost
02:11Z:
Failure of all three ADIRUs
Failure of gyros of ISIS (attitude information lost)
02:12Z:
ADIRUs Air Data disagree
02:13Z:
Flight Management, Guidance and Envelope Computer fault
PRIM 1 fault
SEC 1 fault
02:14Z:
Cabin Pressure Controller fault (cabin vertical speed)
I tend to share your scepticism over the AvHerald interpretation. It appears not to be a logical as that presented by greenspinner (Occam's Razor here) but also it is not internally consistent.

Why would an ADR disagree message come after failure of all three ADIRUs? They can hardly be disagreeing (a less severe kind of failure) after they have failed (which generally means a 'hard' failure), I also don't see how they could take two minutes to "disagree" after "all ports were lost".

Originally Posted by JRF
How can anyone rule out a bomb in this day and age? ... other forms of breakup/fire/explosion theories

Again, I am not saying this is the case. Is there a reason why it can not be the case? Rule it out please!
The main way to "rule it out" right now, based on the limited information confirmed, is that the sequence of ACARS messages which appears to correspond to the progressive event(s) which resulted in the loss of the aircraft are dominated by systems connected with flight controls, auto-flight and navigation.

The only message which could be even tangentially related to a bomb or catastrophic structural event appears to be the last one - the cabin vertical speed one - which could be related to explosive decompression or to loss of cabin structural integrity.

that implies that any structural failure occured as a consequence of the preceding event, and was thus a symptom and not a (primary) cause.

Last edited by Saab Dastard; 5th Jun 2009 at 23:39. Reason: Tidying up
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