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Old 4th Jun 2009, 23:25
  #26 (permalink)  
mm43
 
Join Date: Jun 2009
Location: NNW of Antipodes
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AF447 reported INTOL at 0133z, next TASIL ETA 0223z, FL350 GS 543KT.

If the above is accepted as matter of record, then the ACARS 0214z position at 3 34 40N 30 33 28W placed the a/c on track at 331nm past INTOL at an average speed made good of 484KT. The much mentioned ACARS crew report at 0200z indicating heavy turbulence was 27min past INTOL, and assuming that 540KT had been maintained to this point, then over the next 14 minutes the average GS was 385KT.

Without speculation as to what may or may not have happened after 0214, the a/c was at that point most likely still heading 028T (046M) and should structural damage have resulted in the break-up of the a/c, debris would normally be found in an arc +/- 30 degrees of the final heading and at point from the last known position based on the expected trajectory of individual items (if more than one).

No one seems to have asked why the original debris reports were in positions that didn't follow any of the basic rules mentioned above.

It would seem that for those reported debris position(s) to be correct, the a/c would need to have made a right 180 degree turn - something I doubt would have happened in the circumstances. A 5 - 15 degree bank would seem not to be a controllable option in what may have been CB cell shear.

mm43
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