AF447
Fine! I'll start with some thoughful advice:
Just a reminder that this was a real aircraft carrying real people which really crashed in a real ocean due to some real cause - while flying in the vicinity of real weather. Winning points of logic or quoting more unnamed sources than the other guy does not - in the long run - count for anything in the face of the tragic reality. We aren't a Talmudic debating society, there is no jury to persuade, and a "convincing" argument will still carry no water if, in the end, it does not match up with the real event. Which, we hope, will eventually become clear(er).
"No Captain is going to go through thunderstorms to stay...". = "No Captain is going to let his airliner stall while talking to other cockpit personnel while the speed decays" (Schipol, Buffalo) = "No Captain is going to land downwind on a short, high-altitude, rainslick runway" (Toncontin) = "No Captain is going to take off on an unlighted runway less than 1/2 the required length for his aircraft." (Lexington). Never say never....
At this point, almost anything is "possible", far fewer things are "probable" consistent with the limited evidence, and only one is "correct".
BTW, as a sometime reporter (yes, I confess) I find most of the press accounts quoted so far dismally below standard. We'd never quote someone else's "unnamed" source because there is no direct way to determine that source's credibility. We'd rarely even quote another publication's report, because we'd have no idea how competent - or lazy - that publication's reporters were.