I'm sorry but your all just as bad as each other and no better than Capt. Moody. It is all pure speculation as to the cause -even if it be informed speculation. There is unlikley to be a single cause for the loss of this aircraft and those on board. It does look as if weather may have been one factor and that there is evidence of loss of lx shortly thereafter. More than that is guesswork.
A ditching at night would be difficult for any crew, however experienced even when the sea state is calm. No wreckage has yet been located which doesn't mean anything except that a debris trail would be expected if the A/C broke up. If a dicthing was successful or then one would expect that EPRIB would have been activated or that there would be evidence of the ditching, rafts Lifejackets etc. seatcusions, plastic panels etc. which would by now have been located. There have now been reports of burning wreckage close to the expected track of the Aircraft - although this was from the commander of an aircraft inbound to Brasil who at the time was unaware of the accident -
"'There is information that the pilot of a TAM aircraft saw several orange points on the ocean while flying over the region ... where the Air France plane disappeared"
Sadly, the situation doesn't look good.