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Old 1st Jun 2009, 18:39
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sepia
 
Join Date: Aug 2005
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Anything you here on here would be purely speculation at this point. With that in mind, here's my speculative take on it.

Right now they have somewhere around 50 guys out on leaves. If they thought they needed more people, they wouldn't have offered the leaves. Within the last 6 months they've also offered early retirement packages too. Again, they wouldn't offer these if they needed the bodies.

That said, this is aviation, and things change very quickly. Its not uncommon for airlines to hire all the way up until they lay off. It's also not uncommon to have guys on lay off right up until they hire again. So just because there's guys on leave now doesn't mean they'll all be brought back before the next new hire arrives.

I think there's two big catches right now. First, the contract negotiations. The results of these could massively sway the crewing requirements. Even seemingly small changes to the draconian reserve rules could require more crews. That said, I don't think the reserve rules have seen much change in my lifetime. Second, fly until you die guys having some form of luck at the courts. Right now as it stands, there's over 100 retirements a year for the foreseeable future. If the retirement age were to change tomorrow morning, some percentage of that 100+/yr would elect to stay on. What percentage would walk down greedy lane and stay on is an unknown. Certainly though, the number would be less than the forecast 100+/yr. This would not only affect everyone on the property negatively, but would also slow the need for new hires to replace those retiring out.

There's always the rumors of more planes too. Every company I've worked at since my first instructing gig, all the way through the next 5 jobs all had "something coming". It's the oldest trick in the book. The current ___RUMOUR___ is additional 330's to be added to the fleet. The rumour before that one was the return of 767-200's from the desert. The 767-200's are still in the desert.

If I were placing bets, I would say that hiring won't happen until the 787 shows on the bids. That's not going to happen for awhile yet. So without that causing a massive train up effort, while one fleet transitions to another, it will probably just remain status quo. I'm so far removed from the people that make the decisions it's laughable though. So definitely don't take my uninformed opinion to the bank.

While you're waiting for them to resume hiring again, it's a great time to analyze their last hiring wave. Try and look at what made people successful. What companies did they hire from, how did they select people from those companies. If you're not a company they hired extensively from, would you benefit from trying to get to one? Take some time and learn about a hiring process run by professionally trained HR people. It isn't sitting with the chief pilot trying to say the right things. This is multi tiered. Psych tests, cognitive tests, behavioral interview questions. Your funny one liner that won you your last job will score you out of pool here. So it's definitely something that you'll need to understand to be successful at. It's never a bad time to learn about something like that.

Good luck in the next round. Hopefully I'm wrong and the phones start ringing tomorrow.
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