Do I feel some optimism from some pilots out here? I would not be optimistic, if smells the Eastern/Continental here. Who tells us it was not a 'you buy my company or I close you down by not giving you better lease rates-deal' from GE? You never know in the world of the top-echelons.
Let's look at some facts here:
- Polar is in the direct sales business. They have their agents and sales people selling the capacity of an airplane, not the time of the aiplane to fly. Presently, due to their rather minimal service, Polar has huge problems. But they are not much bigger than the problems they had since their beginning. Trouble in that business is, that you cannot afford to fly half empty more than once a year on each route. After that you can fill the aircraft to the top each flight and still just recover. The difference to recent years now is, that GE is not willing to further pour money into the system (paralell to SR/SN here???) Polar is for sale since three years, and finally GE found someone stupid enough to take it over. Michael would not have done it!
- Atlas is clearly in the ACMI business. The only risk you have is, that your customer gives a plane back, as the market is bad. So you might have some problems to have all your fleet in the air. It can be tough, but the business as such is rather straightforward. But now, separate company or not is no factor, Atlas is going to compete against it's own customers. I want to see Stan Wraight's face when his next customer tells him that the contract is off as they (Atlas) are the direct competition. My prediction: all their customers will do that. And believe me, direct sales is enormously more difficult than ACMI.
- So what will happen? Atlas is going to have to fly on it's own account, will lose all it's ACMI customers (as direct competition is a definite NO GO) and go bust. The route to Japan is worth ZERO. Japan since three years is in s downward deflationary spiral and will take a very long time to recover. Freight yields are falling rapidly as everyone wanted to get in there, but now capacities are much bigger than demand. They don't know how to deal with Asian forwarders, they don't know about the loyalty of Indian forwarders, Thai forwarders, Cinese forwarders to their carrier. If you don't believe me, check Eagle!!! And the Atlantic is dead, yieldwise. SOuth America is a small market, you cant move more than 15 airplanes in total there, and the compatition is fierce.
They will fly empty, and this is soemthing even the Atlas cash reserve (if it still exists by then) is not going to survive longer than a 3 to 4 months.
If I were an Atlas of Polar pilot, i'd run as fast as I can.