It is X% judgement and Y% luck.
The more you practice, the lower Y becomes, but it never gets to 0.
In other words with experience and training you are able to avoid situations you required luck to intervene in to keep you safe, and are able to recover from situations you didnt manage to avoid.
However with all the experience and training there are some situations it is almost impossible to avoid and recover from. Thats is when you still need to hope it is your lucky day.
Age is not a factor.
You are wrong - if you fly with "older" people you will find out why.