StopStart,
very true! What a bizarre decision:
It's clearly not on a cost basis, as (if we do it properly by building houses/sqn accommodation) there will be no cost saving in my lifetime.
It's clearly not on an efficiency basis as you've mentioned. Brize is going to get heinously busy.
It's not on an local economy basis as it appears the locals at LYE and BZN haven't been consulted (schooling/local employees etc).
It's not on a manpower basis as many LYE civ contractors AND blue suiters won't be making the move (manpower savings will be over-aggressive in this case). Not sure whether they've started training/costing replacements yet.
The 2 assumptions of the closure are flawed:
1. Forecast manpower saving has already occurred.
2. A400 apparently can use the rwy at LYE with no problem with regard to field length (IF we ever see it!).
Looks like someone is too embarrassed to make the right and cheaper decision!