BugSpeed
...Surely the whole reason for BA management using VR, unpaid leave etc is to alleviate the surplus problem by targeting the top 500...
No.
...I am pretty sure 1/5 will take the VR offer if it goes through, possibly more...
On what can you possibly base that statement?
I've known most of those concerned for over 25 years and I haven't got a clue how many will go, may go, or are considering going?
...In other words I think they hope VR to solve the current surplus...
BA knows that VR won't solve the current crisis.
...From a reliable source I have heard figures of around 100 as being the current surplus...
Really?
Well, I have heard, from the reliable source, there is no surplus figure being quoted, at present, nor is a future one being quoted, at present, because BA can't know what that figure might be until the VR process has closed, until the cost saving discussions with BALPA have closed, until the EU decide on the 80/20 slot rule and until the Route Planners finalise the route closure and aircraft stand-down program, as well as a few other minor factors like whether the Cabin Crew decide to take Industrial Action.
If the 80/20 decision goes in BA's favour, and if business passengers don't start flying again in a hurry, then a figure of 100 surplus pilots is certainly quite possible and it may well be much worse than that!
At present, nobody knows for sure, so if someone is quoting a figure to you, it's likely to be just guesswork.
...I very much doubt that compulsory redundancy is on the cards just yet...
For what it's worth, the majority opinion amongst the pilots in BA that I've spoken to is that there may well be compulsory redundancies ahead.
We hope not, but if there are, then BALPA will negotiate their recall ahead of any new hires, so it is unlikely to benefit pilots in the hold pool.
...dont think you need to paint quite such a gloomy picture...
Nobody is painting any sort of picture. However you have had at least three current BA pilots tell you what is happening, but, or so it appears, because it's not what you want to hear, you seem reluctant to accept it.
That's fine; you're entitled to your opinion.
However for others who may be about to make major career decisions, I would advise them to consider very carefully what has been posted by those inside BA. Optimism is a great quality, but Realism is a better one.
Finally, I believe there is some hope for those currently swimming in the pool who wish to remain there.
The year long time limit was only ever a piece of HR dogma, with no relevance to the real world that anyone outside HR could ever understand. Abandoning it has been long overdue, will save BA some money and may even allow a reduction in the number of Flt Ops HR personnel, a silver lining to a dark cloud if ever there was one!
As you say, BA have made it clear that they wish to be in a position to meet the surge when/if markets pick up, and they will wish to have pilots in the hold pool when that happens.
When might that be? 2011 is the very earliest date that I've heard mentioned, but that could happen, so, if you are determined to join BA and you can stick it out until then, who knows, you could be in luck!
I wish you all the Best of Luck in whatever you decide to do,
Bellerophon