Bugspeed,
I hope you can share your 'reliable' source with us as the numbers you quote for surplus aren't quite correct and the current position of the company in the current climate is still under scrutiny by Price Waterhouse Coopers.
As to offsetting surplus pilots then the pilots targeted under VR are not for that purpose. Each department has been given specific forward looking cost cutting measures and the VR target enables BA/BALPA to negotiate productivity issues based around the financial gains that VR would bring as those issues affect all remaining pilots. The company can, currently, absorb the pilot surplus numbers without a problem. The numbers only start to become a problem if Jets need parking up over the winter at 12 crews a jet.
Relaxing the 80/20 rule will allow the company to park up jets over the winter which will lead to a reduced flying program which will lead to reduced monthly allowances and hence impact all of the current pilots.
If there is a 'pick up' and when it comes then BA should hopefully be in a position to benefit. What the T's & C's will be of new pilot contracts or even current pilot contracts will be remain, at the moment, very fluid.
And yes, I agree with Tandem Rotor, it is a time for gloomy news as the pain will be shared by all and, at the moment, none of us has sight of how deep the axe will bite.