Tandem rotor,
Clearly you are currently employed by BA, as this is hot off the press. I am pleased that you are sharing with us the latest information, but at the same time I dont quite understand your thinking. Surely the whole reason for BA management using VR, unpaid leave etc is to alleviate the surplus problem by targeting the top 500. From a reliable source I have heard figures of around 100 as being the current surplus which will obviously increase if BA's network shrinks further. Saying that I am pretty sure 1/5 will take the VR offer if it goes through, possibly more. Of course people will have a vairety of reasons whether they stay or carry on.
I though on the other hand dont think you need to paint quite such a gloomy picture for those currently swimming in the pool. BA have made it very clear that whilst they are keen to meet the budgets set they are also focussed on being able to meet the surge when the markets pick up, which they will. Hence the unprecedented decision to abandon the annual limit of the hold pool.
I very much doubt that compulsory redundancy is on the cards just yet, as if you had read BA's recent news break it was primarily aimed at hurrying along the pilots who are considering leave or VR so that they can then plan the next move. In other words I think they hope VR to solve the current surplus.
To all those in the pool, I think we should just remember that ANYTHING can happen in this business....