So who do you think will go solo earlier?
Actually abagnale. You can't tell. I would say it depends on the person. I've seen both. I knew a pilot like your number two example. During ground school, he either appeared half asleep or writing to his girlfriend. He passed with 99% and was disappointed with that. He breezed through training like it was a holiday camp and was a superb pilot. I've seen the opposite too. But you are right on one level. If both have the same basic abilities and one applies himself more than the other. There can only be one winner.
I would just re-emphasise to the OP and others from my previous post. Apply yourself and don't be negative, learn from mistakes and move on. Only now at this point in my 'career' where I'm actually considering quitting flying do I realise that I was actually quite good. It was only the circumstances of my training which was difficult and held me back. Couple that with a slight lack of confidence and the doubts began to build. Negativitiy reinforces negativity. Something I would also point out to you here who would paint dark clouds in words on this forum. My own family never helped as they always seemed to believe I was a dreamer.
With hindsight, I now realise I was quite good but my standards were too high. I once aborted a flight test against the protestations of my examiner because I felt I had screwed up already and it wasn't worth continuing. Crazy isn't it? Another time I was so convinced I failed that I was taken aback when he said I passed and almost tried to talk him out of it, almost.
It was all in the head. Recently I carried out an approach and landing while describing it in detail to another pilot on the ground over the radio. (Relax it was a private strip not Heathrow.) Later I realised that I had reached a point where I has sufficient spare capacity to make a landing at a difficult strip and talk about it as I did so. I wouldn't have believed it a few years ago. Of course I also had a couple of go arounds lately just to puncture my lately acquired ego.
That's really what I'm saying, don't let it get to you. I nearly did and might have missed out on an interesting few years.