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Old 3rd May 2009, 21:06
  #121 (permalink)  
Sunfish
 
Join Date: Aug 2004
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Bradley gets it.

An Influenza A pandemic normally occurs over an extended period and occurs in waves, each succeeding wave having a greater impact (CFR) than the last. It isn't the death toll that is the real problem for us. It is the load it places on our society in terms of already overstretched health care, supply lines, utilities etc. We are better off in care and science depth than 1918 but have nowhere near the resources to deal with the number that may fall ill in a pandemic. Today we live in a 'just in time' society. Disrupt the supply chains even a little and see what happens.

This is why the experts are worried. H1N1 has met the three criteria in spades. It will be some time before we really know if it will go pandemic or not and it will be too late to get ready once teh first wave really gets going. That is why you are being warned now. It is your choice to take it or leave it.
The CFR isn't the thing. The 1918 pandemic had a CFR of "only" 2.5%. It's the massive number of cases in a short time (think 20% of the population - say in Australia 4 million), that totally overwhelms the healthcare system. Now even if just One percent of those 4 million cases die of flu or complications, that's 40,000 deaths in three months or less. This is hardly "business as usual".

Please read Flu Wiki - please note that this is not wikipedia at all but among other things a collection of reference works and commentary on Influenza in general.

Flu Wiki - Main - Flu Wiki


Furthermore, as you do your research, you will discover that the W.H.O. is a highly political organisation, as is our Government, and what they tell you is what is in their best interest to tell you, not necessarily what is in your best interests.
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