SARS or Avian Influenza (H5N1 or H7N3 or H7N7 or H9N2)?
Avian Influenza is alive and well. It is all over the place with identified cases in Indonesia, Cambodia, Turkey, Thailand, Vietnam, Eqypt, China.
According to WHO the latest outbreak in Egypt of Avian Influenza of the 67 cases diagnosed some 23 have been fatal.
On the 8th April 2009 WHO reported that the 110 confirmed cases of human infection In Vietnam, 55 have been fatal.
On the 22nd January 2009 WHO reported that of the 141 confirmed cases in Indonesia, 115 were fatal.
On the 2nd of February 2009 WHO reported that of the 38 confirmed cases in China, 25 have been fatal.
Kind of makes you wonder how many are unreported and not confirmed in under developed areas or where diagnoses has been actively suppressed by local government.
I am still VERY concerned regarding Avian Influenza - should it mutate into an airborne virus I am convinced a pandemic would result.
Likewise - the method of transmission of the Swine Influenza could determine the impact on the population. Also the characteristics that it appears to attack middle age healthy people is a concern - kind of like the 1918 Spanish Flu is a concern. But it appear that no one really knows the extent of it yet and its proper characteristics.
With regards to airline travel - packing lots of people with no previous interaction into a very confined area - possibly being infected by one person - then these people moving onto their own social groups in society and spreading contact is a great concern for me - as it prevents the containment of a rapidly spreadable disease. I would have thought that diseases that show some time from infection to display of symptoms (ie look and feel OK but have a communicable disease) is a great concern.
The cleanliness of aircraft have a lot to be desired. You have to ask yourself "How well have these toilets been disinfected and who was last using it?" . The Avian Influenza has been reported to last up to 6 days in fecal matter.
I am very concerned. I believe the impact for the airline industry of a pandemic in an economic depression would be severe.