Oh, I'll bet with you alright Captain. I'll bet that you will still be there because you're new, relatively low-time (in company) and therefore impressionable, malleable and less inclined to resist change. An HR director's dream come true. Exactly the same reasons that RYR have so many cadets who (additionally) depend upon their jobs to pay their huge loans.
As for NJ meeting their promises in the form of the cost of living rise you speared your own argument. If they were contractually obliged to do so they had no choice (although I think we all know they were somewhat creative in the % used). In the old days they'd have given it a go but they've been sued enough times now to know it would have happened in spades. With the current situation any number of deeds can be done under the guise of saving money and it will be difficult to disprove. They can't go down the route of first in/first out because that will rob them of the very (pliant) people they need ie, new hires and cadets so in a purely academic way it will be interesting to see how they do it. I'd expect reduced working patterns and voluntary unpaid leave before anyone gets fired.
One thing's for sure though, whatever is going to happen to some of you has already been decided. They just haven't told you yet. They'll have contingency plans in stages but once (if) they make 'The' decision everyone else is along for the ride.