Yes, the SYD-MEL-SYD will probably throw a spanner in the works for a while, but the ultimate aim is for a MEL-LAX, which will return things to the status quo for a period, until the next change.
It amuses me how incredible short sighted some are, whilst others choose not to view the past.
I'm sure if we look back into the history books we will find that even the mighty Qantas had crap conditions at one stage, and the current, generous conditions were most likely hard fought over many years, taking advantage of periods where pilots had the upper hand and locking things in via unions etc so that they could weather the storm when things were not so good.
So it has been for
VB and probably for the bulk of the free world carriers.
The hope is that VA will go the same road over time. First and foremost the airline has to be self sustaining. A key to that is low and predictable salaries in the first few years. If, and only if, the airline establishes itself, will the opportunity to improve conditions present itself.
Presumably, if VA survives, in a few years time it will be operating in a fairly competitive pilot market as carriers struggle to cope with a resurgent world economy. That will be the opportunity for VA/
VB pilots to exert some pressure for an improved contract/EBA, and like every other good employee package in the aviation industry, it won't come easy. It will be a long and tiring struggle, but if the market dictates it, it will happen, as long as the
VB/VA pilot group has the stomach for the fight.
If the airlines goes under, the issue has gone away. If the pilots don't have the balls for the fight, then the problem has gone away for the management. If the world economy doesn't recover for 10 years, there probably won't be a shortage of experienced drivers. There are a lot of variables and no one knows the answers.
One thing is for sure though, if nobody had taken the jobs, VA would not exist. If VA didn't exist then there would be no chance of a better package down the road. Of course some will argue that if nobody took the jobs, VA would have had to put the salaries up. That may be true, but it may have been the case that they would not have taken the risk if the salary base was too high. Who knows.
We are where we are. At the moment everyone is positive and working hard to get the company profitable, but everyone also has one eye on the future, with the expectations of better conditions, and the other eye on the employment market. If one becomes more attractive than the other, then that is where most people will focus their attention.
Another thing that is also guaranteed is that the fabulous deal that the QF guys work under is never going to be seen again. So there is no point comparing apples with oranges, or wishing for something that is never going to happen. For those that are senior enough at Qantas to feel secure, then good luck to you. For those who are looking down the barrel at a future with J*, the VA and
VB guys will be working with you to map out the future of airline pilot conditions in Australia for the foreseeable future.
That is my view of the reality of OZ aviation in the short term. But i have been wrong before.
V