Random? Not.
I'm hoping whats below is instructive and I will then make a prediction...
You all know how alcohol and drug testing was sold to the motoring community? It was "sold" as "random" testing by Governments and that idea was used to get around the common law restriction on the Police searching or questioning people without a warrant.
Well last week the Traffic Operations Group destroyed the "Randomness" in Victoria. They have a new camera system that recognises licence plates. It's connected to a database of registered owners and their driving and/or criminal records. It is capable of scanning 3000 licence plates per hour.
It was placed by the side of the Westgate Freeway outbound. At the Williamstown road exit, there were about Fifteen Traffic Operations Group cars arranged in a net to cover all possible exits.
The modus operandi was very simple. If the registered owner of the vehicle had a previous drinking or drugs record, or otherwise triggered the database decision rules, the computer beeped and threw up the details. These were then radioed to the so called "Random breathalyzer" unit situated on the other side of the Westgate bridge on the Williamstown road off ramp about Three minutes away.
One guy not the usual army of Eight with booze bus and dustbins etc. was standing there and he then pulled over the suspect vehicle as it hit the ramp. "Good evening sir, you are requested to submit to a random test"
Goodbye randomness. The court cases when this is exposed will be interesting.
How does this apply to aviation?
When the promoters of this scheme in CASA start getting desperate about their low hit rate, and the complete mess that is their cost/benefit analysis, watch them remove the element of randomness. They will hit schools and test large numbers of students very early in their courses. They will look for "known" characters, like the old Ag pilot living in his caravan at the end of the strip and suchlike. They will target baggage handlers on a Monday morning or just after a public holiday. They will reduce the Alcohol tolerance to zero, anything to get the hit rate up like the T.O.G. are doing right now.