VMC or IMC
This is my first day and just registered! Looking round the site I was surprised to see this thread running at full speed after all this time. That said, I was in MOD at the time of the BOI and met the President on several occasions. Most of what we discussed must remain priviledged, but I recall several points that have subsequently been blurred by press and political comment - albeit well intentioned. Equally, several external issues have become involved in the search for the Holy Grail - why did the aircraft crash?
Yes lets get back to basics. 100% of aircraft accidents have a root cause, in this case the aircraft entered IMC below safety height and flew under control into the ground - now termed a CFIT accident. RAF pilots are trained from day one of the dangers of flight in IMC, and the action to be taken in the event that one enters IMC below safety height - climb to safety height. In this case there was no evidence that the aircraft was climbing when it hit the ground - the contrary - the Captain had failed in his primary duty. But humans are fallible, and the duty of the second pilot - or executive vice president as he is sometimes called, is to act as the safety checker and alert the captain to dangerous situations, or in extremis, to take control to ensure the safety of the aircraft. This did not happen. Two major errors of judgement by experienced pilots.
There are many other matters, secondary causes, which can be almost anything ... lack of supervision, inadequate briefing, faulty weather data, technical problems, medical, difficulties at home, even as we have heard lately - gambling debts, but none in themselves cause the aircraft to fly into the ground. This is something that people who have not spent a life flying, or indeed investigating accidents as I have, seem to fail to grasp.
There have been many CFIT accidents in the past, in fact I think a Vulcan was lost in similar circumstances on the Scottish Low Flying route many years before this incident. Sadly, CFIT accidents continue in both military and civil flying.
Final point. I remember that in the early days of the Lightning, a pilot was lost when he became disorientated over the North Sea. It emerged he had not had breakfast or lunch, and it was determined that this was possible secondary cause of the accident. A result was that the Flight Safety organisation produced a series of large posters proclaiming "High Performance needs Energy" (I think - or maybe Food!). Subsequently, the V Force Aircrew Buffets spread to other stations, and finance was made available for the crew room snacks that have been mentioned earlier.