The Sharemarket is the problem
G'day Gents.
The way I see it, the problem lies with public companies. The CEO's of public companies exist ONLY to:
1. Provide dividends to the shareholders
2. Facilitate an increase in the share price
Share holders don't care if your airline is "almost crashing" 99% of the time. This doesn't affect the share price. And you can bet your backside that the CEO's are managing this risk with armies of Actuaries telling them how far to push it. When I say push it, I mean compromising on the quality of crew through hiring practices and over-work.
Some major airlines seem to now effectively operate wide-bodied jets with a single experienced operating pilot, and a seat-warmer sitting alongside. That's fine when everything is going well; but, what happens (for example) if the captain experiences a subtle cerebral haemorrage (brought on by stress, too much booze, and not enough sleep?) on brakes-release at a major city airport?
They suck in a flock through the two left engines; the captain is thinking "Look at all the pretty lights..."; the copilot is thinking "Wow, he's so good this guy, he's rolling inverted and pulling to get us out of this...". Fully-laden widebody ploughs through 150 houses and two hotels. 620 instant statistics go into the spreadsheet.
I see this risk management style of the airlines as being similar to a lift curve: all seems fine as your angle of attack rises and rises and rises (look at our cost-savings; look at our beautiful safety record; most importantly look at our in-flight bar).
But then your angle becomes critical, and you stop flying.
"Oops; we shaved a bit much from our operating costs. Very sorry for the crash."
I think the aviation industry is unwillingly participating in a statistical experiment at the behest of the public companies.
Only after the last merger has been made; the last competitor has been bought; the last non-essential human employee made redundant, will public companies realise that what they've been doing has been unsustainable.
Given the recent global debacle at the hands of the "Captains of Industry", this time is coming sooner than we may think.
But I could be wrong, and everything will continue just fine, and nobody will be hurt. Now let's all hold hands and sing "Kumbaya".