Dear Pinkman,
You don't know because there is no evidence to support it either way except in hot-dog land where if something hasn't happend yet, it can't happen in the future.
I have lived in hot-dog land exactly 20 years longer than you have and amassed 20,000 hours in various jet aircraft and flight simulators as a check and training airman. I think you'll agree that after a while in this industry, with the evidence and history at hand; one can arrive at a fairly intelligent assumption on the subject at hand. However, I will not scuttle your theories any further as I consider this conversation terminated. Happy gliding, a great sport! Cheers,HD.