A couple of points:
Firstly, as I have already said, the next set of inflation figures (Feb 09) are issued on 24 March. They are likely to be very low, with RPI possibly even being negative. A low pay rise for the military, say 1%, announced shortly after low inflation figures, say -1%, will look good to the GENERAL PUBLIC!!
Secondly, and alternatively (grassy knoll theory coming up), the government may play a subtly dufferent game. There is talk that all public sector pay increases will be announced at once. That is A LOT of people (over 1 million in the NHS alone). There is due to be a general election in the next 15 odd months (May 2010 is the latest possible date I believe). So this is the last chance the government will get to create a good impression before the election, in terms of a pay rise at least, of a couple of million voters. Therefore the pay rise might be reasonable???