Originally Posted by
Yeadon Dam
you still have BA to LHR, BA to LGW, BMI to LHR and VLM to LCY. Work that one out!
It's straightforward, but something our politicians do not understand. Manchester Piccadilly to London Euston, and Manchester Ringway airport to London City, are separate markets, and passengers do not readily transfer between the two.
Always worth chatting to your neighbour in the plane heading to/from London City and asking what journey they are actually making. I find that few are actually going to Canary Wharf of the City, but a surprising number are heading for significantly out-of-town points like Maidstone or Cambridge. Far more people start/finish their day business trips at their homes rather than at the office. These people are not going to transfer to a train from Euston, if for no other reason than they have driven to the airport and find this is impractical into Central London. Likewise those travelling by train are usualyl making journeys that would not be practical by air. Just because the city names are the same does not mean the markets are transferable.
You get this in other transportation as well. Put in a new Underground line across London and it will be filled, but few in it have stopped driving, the passengers have come from elsewhere, or just been generated; the socio-economic mix between the two modes will be quite different. Transport planning professionals "pretend" there is a diversion because politicians like to believe it, but it is false. I have massaged figures like this to get projects moved forward all my life
I live close to LCY and do a day return to Manchester on VLM for business meetings in Cheshire from time to time. It takes so much longer to go for the train that without the LCY air service I will try to arrange things differently so those in Cheshire come down to me.