Actuary speaking.
ippmatc, I think you're absolutely correct. Landings and takeoffs are the most dangerous phases of flight (although still extremely safe)! So a direct flight, even with an airline that doesn't have the number one safety record in the world*, is likely to be safer than an indirect flight with the one that does (and, once more for emphasis, both options are extremely safe in comparison to almost anything else you do).
An example I've used before: if someone could magically guarantee me an absolutely safe flight from airport B that's 100 miles further away than my regular airport A, it would be less dangerous (although both options are still extremely safe, this is getting boring ...) for me to use my regular flight because of the risk entailed in the extra driving to get me to airport B.
Have a safe flight and try not to worry
* Statistics (such as those at
airdisaster.com) can be misleading. Because air accidents are such rare events, you need to look over periods of decades in order to eliminate random fluctuations. But over such lengthy periods everything changes: crews, training, equipment, routes, company ownership ...