PPRuNe Forums - View Single Post - Merged: Virgin Blue Share Price - how low can it go and for how long?
Old 6th Mar 2009, 08:37
  #518 (permalink)  
airtags
 
Join Date: Dec 2007
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forget the share price - just count the bums

wirgen blue - a very tongue in cheek post
but with Godfrey rewriting the meaning of the term 'corporate goverance'
I think protection from creditors will be the order of the day as opposed to de-registration. - Still your idea would provide a very convenient way of getting away from some of the costly off-balance sheet liabilities that would eat up the treasury reserves if the cash flow was really squeezed.

VB are not alone as the economy will continue to dive - All operators will reduce capacity, revert to streamlined hub schedules and probably seek even more short cuts in the regulatory regimes to save money. This is the key area that every pilot and crew member must watch closely as they will be the precipes that will haunt us in the future. (eg Jungle Jets with 3 crew instead of 1 crew per door, fatigue provisions etc.,...dare I mention the life rafts!!!!)

Contrary to the critics, the BOC leaseback was a shrewed move - aside from raising a bit cash to pay a few V debts, it has (further) lessened the appeal of VB to potential predators and backed shareholders into a narrow alley where they really cannot turn around - I would expect the same to be done with the village and the other limited assets.

Interestingly, the deviation between QF & DJ capital city website fares is probably the smallest it has ever been which says a lot about price segment elasticity - would love to see the pax profile trends for both carriers. (Maybe some of the cabin Crew might like to post their observations on this?)

In short - expect the share price game of limbo to go lower but I think the numbers to watch are not on the ASX boards but are the numbers of bums of seats. (operators might even need to rethink the traditional ASK formulas) - these will increasingly be the new performance benchmarkers.

AT
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