It's all a case of predicting how long the recession/depression will last...
For pilots, when will the airline industry start growing again, for the non-aircrew when will the general economy pick up?
One thing to consider, when the senior neddies are thinking the reccession will save any mass exodus from the military, is that if somebody is considering leaving now, but hasn't put their paperwork in yet, they will not be out for about one year. So it is not so much a case of the state of the economy now, but in a years time.
Alistair Darling is "banking" (to coin a phrase) on the economy starting to recover a year from now, personally I have my doubts...