For reference, I did a quick check on the 15 Saab 340 incidents reported at Aviation Safety Network, which may have been familiar to the captain of Colgan 3407.
Notably, in all four incidents where icing was a factor (in 1993, 1998, 2002 and 2006), the airplane stalled before the stall warning activated.
Quote from the 2002 event:
The investigation found that despite being certified to all required certification standards at the time, the Saab 340 aircraft can suffer from an aerodynamic stall whilst operating in icing conditions without the required warnings being provided to flight crew. This problem had been highlighted when the aircraft was introduced to operations in Canada and as a result a modified stall warning system was mandated for aircraft operated in Canada. This modification was not fitted to other Saab 340 aircraft worldwide.
So based on those incidents, we may suspect the captain of 3407 might well have been inclined to interpret the stick shake and push as signs of a tailplane stall instead of an impending wing stall. In the tailplane stall scenario pulling the yoke would be the correct response.... but this time it wasn't.
Makes you think how easily things can go wrong
