The crew observed “significant” ice accretion on the aircraft’s windows and wings prior to the eventual upset that led to the crash. The airplane’s flight data recorder indicates that the airplane’s autopilot did not disengage until the stick shaker activated, however, and airmets for the Buffalo area indicated no worse than moderate icing. In fact, only 27 minutes after the accident another Colgan Q400 flew to Buffalo from Newark on virtually the same flight path, said Chealander.
Apart from airmets for light and moderate icing, the National Weather Service issued a sigmet for turbulence that night in the Buffalo area, said Chealander. He also noted that a pirep indicated severe icing over Dunkirk, N.Y., some 50 miles southwest of Buffalo.
Meteorology is such an exact science, that "severe" icing 50 miles southwest of Buffalo can be discounted since another flight made it on the same path only 27 minutes later.
OK, so how did we get to 134 kts. with the flaps up?
I would love to listen to the CVR.