JSF/CVF/EF will be around to meet threats for at least that period. Mix in climate change, shrinking resources, new emerging super powers, pandemics... BE PREPARED!
Valid point but how flexible can a carrier be ?
Assuming new carriers were both at home or in close to home then how quickly could they deploy to Gulf in the event of a crises where passage via The Suez was blocked. 6 weeks or less ?