Suggestion here -
xxx
I lived long time in the USA, 20+ years, and very familiar (native) of Europe.
With 40 years of airline career - 1968-2008...
xxx
In any worldwide recession, the USA were first to hit bottom.
Maybe by 3 to 6 months, before Europe-Asia.
And USA was first to recover (before Europe-Asia), by some 3 to 6 months.
xxx
I would factor 6 months for a European recovery (after USA).
And another 6+ months for European air carrier to recall/rehire their pilots.
So, if you see USA (Wall Street) getting better again, it might be first clue.
A recovery of European carriers (new pilot selection) might be 15-18 months later.
xxx
Wild guess I know, but maybe along these lines, give or take 3 to 6 month.
You financial experts, better monitor USA stock exchange and financial news.
Right now, I would do nothing until at least 2009...
Any better idea...?
xxx
Happy contrails