Tailwind Effect on Circling
There has been talk of a 50 kt. tailwind. A 30 second downwind past the threshold of Rwy 18 plus a rate 1 turn to base produces 60 seconds under the influence of said 50kt. which pushes you an extra 0.83 nm past the threshold -- close to half of the 1.7nm maneuvering area.
Without some 18 degrees of drift correction on your base leg, you will still be getting blown out of the maneuvering area at up to 50 kt.
A 20 second downwind and a rate 2 turn yields 35 seconds which still eats up .49nm of the maneuvering area.
Sitting here in my living room, I'd have to spend some time with the aerodynamics textbook to calculate an appropriate timing for downwind past threshold and required turn rate given a certain approach speed and tailwind.
Perhaps there should be a set maximum tailwind in each category acceptable for performing a circling approach.
Once on final, the 40 kt loss of headwind would make for an interesting approach.