Great post, Fairey Delta, and I would not argue with a single word of it. However, all our experiences are different as are the outcomes, so, at the end of the day, one flips a coin and makes the decision unless, of course, the 'correct' answer is glaringly obvious, which does not seem to be the case here.
A major factor in the decision would probably be the age of the decision-maker as there is fairly clear age / command / right seat ratio which will often influence the decision of any recruiter.
As before, good luck with the decision. I (we?) hope to hear - in due course - that your decision was the right one.
GW