I went to a pay conference this week, one high profile speaker said 40% of FTSE 100 companies would not be giving staff a pay rise this year.
The public sector pay guidance from the Treasury has repeatedly had its release date pushed back from early Dec 08 to mid Feb 09. I think the government are waiting for the latest inflation figures to be released showing a marked decline in inflation, they will then announce a very low pay rise for public sector workers. Given the retention difficulties in the Armed Forces and adverse public opinion I don't think the Armed Forces will do as badly as some groups.