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Old 6th Feb 2009, 21:15
  #233 (permalink)  
wirgin blew
 
Join Date: Oct 2004
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Its too late to stop now. I think the ticket prices to LA haven't hit rock bottom just yet. You have seen a huge drop in Business class fares as airlines struggle to fill seats. Premium Economy is at least going to take some of those management types that have to cut costs. Also don't forget it appears that UA and VA are getting closer together. There is already an interline agreement between UA and VB so that is going to be a huge boost from that part of the US market.

VB has forced QF to reinvent itself as Jetstar to compete domestically. They will have to do the same to the USA or they will take another big hit at a time when they can't afford it.

I would imagine that VA has factored into its business model low yields to start with and I doubt that business model is for less than 12 months, more likely it would be 2-3 years.

Can the competition afford to lose pax in the current economic climate. VB has 30% of the domestic market. Can QF afford to share that loss with UA?

Also you usually buy new planes when times are good and that helps you pay for them. When times are bad you hold on. QF is currently doing the opposite, hence the equity raising and dramatic increase in debt.

Only time will tell who is right and who is wrong. I hope that things quickly return to normal because if either of the big two fail it will be a pretty big hit for the Aust economy.
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