PPRuNe Forums - View Single Post - Dubai from boom to bust - Financial Times & Bloomberg downgrade UAE
Old 5th Feb 2009, 13:09
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schismatic
 
Join Date: Oct 2007
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Build on Rock

Some very valid points but interest rates are a delicate area. They are used rightly or wrongly to adjust the economic environment.

If they are too high there are complications. Likewise they if they are too low. Markets can be crashes or bubbles depending on what Central Banks and bankers do with interest rates.

Right now Dubai is in a uncontrolled descent; of that there is no doubt. How many building sites are actually active? How many cranes are stationary? Look around. Even the roads are quiet.

Blame it on the speculators, blame it on the banks - whatever you like -but it is what it is. And a collapsing economy serves no-one.

Right now the way to go is to reduce rates to achieve some semblance of stability. Recovery is out of the question. The property market in Dubai has been damaged for years to come. First it needs a bottom, then it need sensible reorganisation with regards to regulation, then it needs to begin marginal growth. All this before any form of trust or confidence will return. The reputation was damaged severely in a few months. It will take years to repair. Public perception is what drives markets and the stories of the Dubai Boom and Bust will be examined for decades to come.

Rates can be cut too low and raised too high. Somewhere lies a sweet spot dependent on conditions. And this needs to be watched and adjusted.

Inflation one year, deflation the next. Oil at 146 last year and 36 this year. 30% currency swings in months. Super boom, then super bust. Who does this serve other than traders and speculators? For everyone else stability and reasonable predictability are the most beneficial.

People should be able to buy houses and everything else at reasonable cost and not fear wild swings. There should be job security. There needs to be a return to valuing customers and employees not shareholders and stock prices.

Build on solid foundations and sound principles. Build on rock not sand....
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