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Old 3rd Feb 2009, 08:33
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Rainboe
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The A380 is in a class of it's own, a much smaller class than Airbus ever imagined too! For the few remaining long haul carriers a few A380s for specific routes, (Australia etc) but the bulk of those carriers fleets will be the big twins.
It will still be cheaper to fly a single A380 than two big twins. Chaps, we are looking at limititations of the human brain considering the rate of expansion. Forget recessions, this one will be passed in a few years. We had exactly this in 1971. The 747 was absurdly big- at a stroke over doubling 707/DC8 capacity, as the world started getting poorer. The 747 program nearly brought down Boeing, sales were stalling. But gradually, the bigger airlines needed to buy it. We will see this effect happening again. to be considered one of the 'big' airlines, you will have to have A380s for your street cred. In the next 30 years, we will see a burgeoning middle class of Indians and Chinese travelling the world. The next future expansion will be mind boggling, just as the 747 itself created an expansion in the market in the 70s. Nothing will match the economics of an A380 LHR-SYD, LHR-LAX, BOM-JFK, China-LAX/SFO. You can pretend that International point to point in a twin will somehow do it- it won't. The major routes will still take the lion's share. Point to point is more for the domestic US market, not internatinal routes unless US involved. Point to point out of MAN has failed. Try point to point for your BNE-Europe. It doesn't work so well! There is no competitor for the A380 for what it will be able to do, and the economics it can produce. It's market will be large, and people will want the experience. SIA and Emirates alone will carry the program. It can't miss!

Airbus has very well positioned its range to cover every single sector. What has Boeing done? Are the 737 and the 777 supposed to cover the whole market? Because that is the only hardware moving now! The 75/76 range was prematurely terminated after letting it technically stagnate. Everything was poured into the 787- that program has become a comedy show now. If anybody thinks the future consists of point to point A350/787, then they haven't grasped the concept of the expansion after this recession!
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