Despite Bishops spoiling tactics with Baby, Go are doing fine apparently. Loads high and large chunks of the summer schedule already sold.
Any fool can paint a couple of his own 737's and sell a summer timetable to established low cost destinations. Particularly if a well known low cost airline is heavily marketing the airport in question at the time.
The winter will be the real issue. Will Baby have enough non sunshine customers to stem the usual winter losses? Have they got any tie ins or added value for the ski market? Will the brand generate loyalty over the summer or are the punters just chasing the promotional start up fares?
Going from 2 to 5 to 8 aircraft in a year looks mighty ambitious. And lets not forget that every passenger gained by Baby is one lost to BMI or BMIR. It does not seem to make much sense to Joe Punter to be offered an EMA - ALC service on a BMI Fokker 100 OR an EMA-ALC service on a BMIBaby 737. You are robbing Peter to confuse Paul.
Same thing on the domestics. £35 BMIBaby or £240 BMI? Same airports same flight time and barely the chance to gulp a coffee. You make BMI look like crooks and whatever BMIBaby makes BMI will loose.
So what is the BM group? A well respected full service EU airline. An international airline part of a global network. A regional UK airline focussing on point to point business travel. A low cost airline delivering relaibly low fares and no frills.
Or a Jack of All Trades and Master of None.
Bishop said no, never, not about becoming a low cost airline. Right up until the point Go moved into EMA. Within a month he launched BMIBaby operating all the routes offered by Go. Thats a spoiling tactic because he is running scared. He's come to the low costs market too late. Everyone knows Ryan and Easy, a lot know Go and handful are aware of Buzz. Baby is going to have to spend a lot of money for a lot of years to achieve any respectable brand recognition.
Filling 737's with £25 fares in the summer is very very easy. Making money in the low cost sector is not.
Go have plans to put 5 737's into EMA by next Spring. If Baby want to do the same then thats going to be 1,500 low cost seats on the Apron each morning next year. Each doing 7 sectors each as an average gives 10,500 seats a day in and out of EMA. Now thats going to be interesting on a wet Wednesday in Oct,Nov,Dec,Jan,Feb,Mar...
Bishop isn't serious about low cost at EMA. Why should he be? He has had a nice profitable full service and regional operation there for years thank you very much. All he needs to do is cripple Go with marginal yield and growth and they will up sticks to a European base in a year or two and pull out of EMA. Then he can quietly wind up BMIBaby and possibly keep the crews T&C's when he brings them back into BMI proper (scale B).
Its very cynical but he is a shrewd businessman...
PS