Had email yesterday from a young pilot graduate... asking me "what I think"...
His question, as you guess, is "do I have a chance"...?
It is not my expertise, but I can volunteer a few answers.
xxx
Openings with airlines, for pilots in 2009 will be derived from -
xxx
(1) Attrition -
This is the case with "legacy" airlines, or well established air carriers.
My past experience with airlines tells me, it averages 5% of the pilots, yearly.
End of career retirement, early retirement, medical leaves etc.
If you know how many pilots with XYZ airline, you can bank on that.
Many of these airlines, however, factor in that some have pilots on layoff.
Some airlines, it is 5% of their pilots, some might be up to 10%.
Low cost carriers do not have retirement attrition, due to younger age of pilots.
xxx
(2) Increase of fleet requiring new hires -
I doubt many airplanes will be additional to the 2009 fleets.
You and I know that some airlines, in the past, parked new planes in the desert, upon delivery.
Some other airlines will request to delay these deliveries.
So for them, there might be a layoff of 5 to 10% of their pilots.
xxx
So, there will be 10% (wild guess) of pilots unemployed.
Now, ask yourself how many pilots get on the job market, from training.
And how many have been selected (holding pool) by these airlines.
And how many need to be recalled after layoff by these airlines.
It takes minimum 4 to 5 pilot crews (8 to 10 pilots) to operate 1 airplane.
That is based on rosters, vacations, sick leaves... etc,
I do not factor in, the few airplanes still requiring flight engineers.
xxx
The above is basis of the equation. I have no numbers. You might have them.
Have no idea how many new graduates from training.
But by now, 5% of all pilots of many airlines, are in the streets.
In the USA/Canada, I heard about 2,000 as a number on layoff.
Europe, would be 1,000.
South America, 1,000 as well.
Africa, a few numbers. Asia might be hiring (attrition and new airplanes).
Australia/NZ, maybe a few openings...
In rough numbers, air traffic has decreased some 5 to 10% so far.
xxx
Wannabees, how about asking your FTOs "how many graduates last year"...?
They will proudly tell you how many "succesful" fATPL they qualified.
Of course, not to say how many are looking to get a job...
xxx
Another of my recommendations -
Grab any flight job you can get - I mean ANY flight job...
And keep on applying and sending CVs... until thiings get better.
xxx
Happy contrails