I have done this approach many times.A lot of S.Korea´s airfields involve circling approaches.This particular one is not the most difficult but there is that hill on the extended centreline of 18/36 which proved to be the culprit here.
Apparently the Captain had only been there five times previously,and I am betting that he always had the luxury of a straight-in ILS to 36.If his first attempt at landing a 767(apparently low hours on type) at Pusan on 18R was in poor visibility,he was really up against it unfortunately.IMHO,Pusan is a Cat A airfield if you only ever do the straight-in 36.BUT...if you circle to 18,it becomes a Cat C.The location of the hillock is smack on a visual approach trajectory..about 30 seconds downwind and just west of the runway.
Attention to drift on the downwind has to be meticulous by use of the CTR MAP and track line data(was rwy 18 set up in the FMC???)Attention to the trend vector when turning base is also imperative as a back up to visual reference when in marginal conditions.If you turn base too late in poor conditions,you´ve had it.If you consider that both guys were probably looking 2 O´Clock whilst on base,instead of 11 or 12 O´Clock,it completes the picture.I notice that all sim checks for Far Eastern carriers include a circling approach and if you overshoot the rwy centreline on turning final,its an automatic failure.
We always used to cut the downwind to 20 seconds and turn base early approaching the runway at almost 45 degrees,making the final adjustment onto rwy centreline at about 500 or 600 feet.
If you have the luxury of doing it or seeing it being done in nice weather,you involuntarily make a mental note of what an awful deathtrap it could be in bad weather.Something these poor guys probably didnt have the chance of doing.
If I was investigating the accident I would want to know 4 things straight off:
i)As the pilot survived,was this his first circle to 18 approach at Pusan?If yes,what about the FO?
ii)Did they have the expectation of landing straight in and then were changed at the last minute?ie.did they brief the approach?
iii)What was the config of the a/c on downwind and base?Gear seems to have been down but did they have final flap and ref +5?The radius of turn would be crucial.
iv)Was the autopilot flying?If yes(I am betting yes-use of the AP even on visual approaches is extensive in the Far East),bank angle would be limited to bank angle selector.Its not enough for this approach unless base turn is imediate.You need more..35 degrees and more if necessary.......
(i),(iii) and (iv) are forgiveable and tell a story of a man trapped by bad luck and circumstance as with Erebus.I just hope the crew arent guilty of (ii),as there´s never any mitigating circumstances here.
Whatever comes to light,my thoughts and prayers are with the pilot and his crew and passengers.